GBPUSD Rate Breaks Bearish Sequence Despite Cautious BoE Rhetoric

It remains to be seen if the EU election will impact the Brexit negotiations as households select fresh representatives to the European Parliament, and the ongoing rift between U.K. lawmakers may produce headwinds for the British Pound as it puts pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to abandon the hiking-cycle.

欧盟选举是否会影响英国脱欧谈判仍有待观察，因为家庭选择新的欧洲议会代表，英国立法者之间的持续分歧可能会给英镑带来不利因素英国央行（BoE）放弃了远足周期。

A recent speech by Deputy GovernorBen Broadbent suggests the BoE will remain on the sidelines as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member points out that ‘business investment fell in every quarter last year and surveys suggest the underlying trend is still negative.’ In turn, the BoE may stick to the same script at the next meeting on June 20 as the committee ‘judges that there is currently a small margin of excess supply in the economy,’ and the wait-and-see approach for monetary policy may continue to drag on the British Pound as Governor Mark Carney and Co. reiterate that ‘the economic outlook will continue to depend significantly on the nature and timing of EU withdrawal.’

副总督本布罗德本特最近的一次讲话表明英国央行将继续担任货币政策委员会（MPC）成员的观望他指出，“去年每个季度的商业投资都有所下降，调查显示潜在的趋势仍然是负面的。”反过来，英国央行可能会在6月20日的下次会议上坚持同样的脚本，因为委员会认为目前有经济中供应过剩的一小部分，以及货币政策的观望态度可能继续拖累英镑，因为州长马克卡尼和公司重申经济前景将继续显着依赖于自然欧盟退出的时间。'

However, fresh updates to the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may prop up the British Pound as both the headline and core reading for inflation are expected to pick up in April, and signs of sticky price growth may keep the BoE on track to further normalize monetary policy as ‘the Committee judges that, were the economy to develop broadly in line with its Inflation Report projections, an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, would be appropriate to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target at a conventional horizon.’

然而，英国消费者物价指数（CPI）的最新更新可能支撑英镑为预计通货膨胀的标题和核心读数将在4月份回升，而且价格粘性增长的迹象可能使英国央行继续推进货币政策进一步正常化，因为委员会认为，经济发展与广泛一致通货膨胀报告预测，在预测期内持续收紧货币政策，以逐步的速度和有限的程度，适当地将通货膨胀率可持续地恢复到常规范围内的2％目标。

With that said, GBP/USD may face increased volatility over the coming days, but the near-term decline in the Pound Dollar exchange rate appears to have shaken up market participation as retail sentiment remains stretched.

话虽如此，未来几天英镑兑美元可能面临波动加剧，但英镑汇率近期出现下跌随着零售情绪的再现，动摇了市场参与拉伸。

The IG Client Sentiment Report shows 81.7%of traders are net-long GBP/USD compared to 73.7% at the end of April, with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.47 to 1. Keep in mind, traders have remained net-long since March 26 when GBP/USD traded near 1.3210 region even though price has moved 3.3% lower since then.

IG客户情绪报告显示，81.7％的交易者为净多头英镑/美元，而最终为73.7％ 4月份，交易商长期与空头的比率为4.47比1.请记住，交易商自3月26日以来一直保持净多头，当时英镑/美元交易于1.3210区域附近，尽管此后价格已下跌3.3％。

Profit-taking behavior may explain the ongoing decline in net-short interest as GBP/USD sits near the monthly-low (1.2711), but the extreme reading in net-long position suggests the retail crowd is still attempting to fade the recent decline in the pound-dollar exchange rate as its sits near the highest reading for 2019.

由于英镑/美元接近月度低点（1.2711），获利行为可能解释净空头利息持续下降，但净多头头寸的极端读数表明零售业人士仍在试图淡化最近英镑兑美元汇率的下跌，因为它接近2019年的最高点。

The persistent tilted in retail interest offers a contrarian view to crowd sentiment especially as GBP/USD snaps the bullish trend from late-2018, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic, but recent price action raises the risk for a near-term rebound as the exchange rate fails to extend the series of lower highs & lows from the previous week.

持续的零售利率倾斜提供逆向观点以英镑/美元收盘为特征的人群情绪从2018年末开始的看涨趋势，相对强弱指数（RSI）强调了类似的动态，但最近的价格走势提高了近期反弹的风险，因为汇率未能扩大一系列较低的高点和低点。上周。

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注册并加入DailyFX货币策略师David Song LIVE，有机会讨论潜在的交易设置。

GBP/USD Rate Daily Chart

GBP / USD Rate Daily Chart

• Keep in mind, the broader outlook for GBP/USD is no longer bullish as the exchange rate snaps the upward trend from late last year after failing to close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3310 (100% expansion) to 1.3370 (78.6% expansion).

  请记住，更广阔的前景英镑/美元不再看涨，因为汇率未能收于斐波那契重叠点1.3310（100％扩张）至1.3370（扩大78.6％）之上，从去年年底开始上升趋势。

• In turn, the advance from the 2019-low (1.2373) may continue to unravel as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights a similar dynamic, with the oscillator now tracking the bearish formation carried over from March.

  反过来，2019年低点（1.2373）的上涨可能会持续e解开相对强弱指数（RS）突出了类似的动态，振荡器现在追踪从3月开始的看跌形态。

• The break/close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2760 (38.2% retracement) to 1.2800 (50% expansion) brings the 1.2610 (23.6% retracement) to 1.2640 (38.2% expansion) region on the radar, but will keep a close eye on the RSI as it struggles to push into oversold territory, with failure to hold below 30 raising the risk for a rebound in the exchange rate.

  斐波那契下方的突破/收盘重叠在1.2760附近（ 38.2％回撤至1.2800（50％扩张）带动1.2610（23.6％回撤位）至1.2640（38.2％扩张）区域，但将密切关注RSI，因为它正在努力进入超卖领域，未能保持在30以下会增加汇率反弹的风险。

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for GBP

如需更深入的分析，请查看2019年第二季度预测for GBP